"Recognize the house does not recognize the loan" landing, the real estate industry how to go?

Recently, China's real estate market is full of good news. On the one hand, Beijing and Shanghai, two first-tier cities at the same time landed "recognizing houses but not loans" policy, on the other hand, the central bank, the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau issued a notice, the stock of mortgage interest rates formally ushered in the preliminary adjustment program.

The two building market favorable respectively from the loose leverage and reduce the cost of interest rates at both ends of the force, immediately triggered social debate and market commotion. According to the New Beijing News reported that some properties in Beijing part of the housing stock to withdraw discounts, the temporary start of overtime mechanism, "48 hours do not close," "72 hours at any time to book a room," the real estate agent is a collective group of potential customers to disseminate the good news to potential customers, the intention of the buyers are also moved, and the number of viewings increased dramatically. The number of viewings has increased dramatically.

This certainly shows the impact of the new policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" on the property market in first-tier cities like Beijing. But does this mean that the real estate market has taken a major turn for the worse, and what will happen to the property market in the future?

Releasing the backlog of improvement demand

Market fluctuations and salesmen's excitement is understandable, because the two benefits are really heavy, belonging to the policy toolbox of the essentials. But if only this three or two days of market reaction, the property market is expected to appear a major turnaround, is a little too eager. As a home buyer said, "the policy is really good, but the purchase of a home is a large expenditure, or the need for rational consumption.

What is "rational consumption"? For the moment, for home buyers, in addition to weighing their income, wallet and the amount of money to buy a home, is to observe and judge the trend of future prices after the new policy.

If the expectations are stable, it may be worthwhile to choose more to see; if the expectations are soaring, the short-term market supply and demand will be a major change in the face of the need to improve the efficiency of the action, such as "overnight deposit".

Undoubtedly, Beijing, Shanghai real estate market in the supply and demand side has been different from other cities, its prices are more firm, demand is more robust, the purchase restrictions on the demand for inhibition is also more powerful. This leads to the restriction of purchase as long as there is a substantial relaxation, there will be new demand is released, supply and demand will change, and then affect the market and hearts.

This is especially true for improvement demand. For a variety of reasons, the current market rigid demand is difficult to short-term strong, "not recognizing loans" on this part of the purchase group also has no impact, but improve the demand has been looking forward to "not recognizing loans" landing, because this can actually solve the key problem.

For example, some people have houses and loans in foreign countries, but no house in Beijing, according to the previous policy of "recognizing houses and loans", they have to face the high down payment of the second suite if they want to buy a house in Beijing; for example, local people who have a house want to improve and replace it, and "recognizing houses but not recognizing loans" has also greatly alleviated their financial pressure. The pressure on their capital has been greatly alleviated.

In fact, from July 24, the Central Political Bureau meeting put forward "adjusting and optimizing real estate policy" since the market has produced a first-tier cities may adjust the expectations of the property market policy, which also led to a part of the original demand for purchasing a home to wait and see, and some of the properties are even "so far August Zero transaction".

Now "recognize the house does not recognize the loan" policy landing, this part of the backlog down the demand will be released, transformed into "overnight deposit" part of the group.